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Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios

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ZEMAN, Krystof, Eva BEAUJOUAN, Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA and Tomáš SOBOTKA. Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic Research, Rostock: Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung, 2018, vol. 38, February, p. 651-689. ISSN 1435-9871.
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Original name Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios
Authors ZEMAN, Krystof, Eva BEAUJOUAN, Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA and Tomáš SOBOTKA.
Edition Demographic Research, Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung, 2018, 1435-9871.
Other information
Original language English
Type of outcome article in a journal
Country of publisher Germany
Confidentiality degree is not subject to a state or trade secret
WWW URL
Organization Fakulta sociálních studií - Repository
UT WoS 000425712200001
Keywords in English childlessness; cohort fertility; decomposition; family size; fertility decline; parity progression ratios
Changed by Changed by: RNDr. Daniel Jakubík, učo 139797. Changed: 16/3/2019 00:56.
Abstract
Background: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: In Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.
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33366 /1 Jakubík, D. 16. 3. 2019

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Zeman__Beaujouan__Brzozowska__Sobotka__2018_Cohort_fertility_decline_in_low_fertility_countries._Decomposition_using_parity_progression_ratios_DemRes.pdf Licence Creative Commons  File version 16. 3. 2019

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Zeman__Beaujouan__Brzozowska__Sobotka__2018_Cohort_fertility_decline_in_low_fertility_countries._Decomposition_using_parity_progression_ratios_DemRes.pdf
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https://repozitar.cz/repo/33366/634091/
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https://repozitar.cz/auth/repo/33366/634091/?info
Address within Manager for the users outside IS
https://repozitar.cz/repo/33366/634091/?info
Uploaded/Created
Sat 16. 3. 2019 00:56

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  • a concrete person Mgr. Lucie Vařechová, uco 106253
  • a concrete person RNDr. Daniel Jakubík, uco 139797
  • a concrete person Mgr. Jolana Surýnková, uco 220973
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