J 2024

What drives the uranium sector risk? The role of attention, economic and geopolitical uncertainty

LYÓCSA, Štefan and Neda Tosheva TODOROVA

Basic information

Original name

What drives the uranium sector risk? The role of attention, economic and geopolitical uncertainty

Authors

LYÓCSA, Štefan and Neda Tosheva TODOROVA

Edition

Energy Economics, AMSTERDAM, ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2024, 0140-9883

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Article in a journal

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

is not subject to a state or trade secret

References:

Marked to be transferred to RIV

Yes

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14560/24:00140138

Organization

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta – Repository – Repository

EID Scopus

Keywords in English

Uranium; ETF; Nuclear Energy; Realized volatility; Forecasting; Geopolitical Uncertainty

Links

GA20-11769S, research and development project.
Changed: 1/2/2026 00:51, RNDr. Daniel Jakubík

Abstract

In the original language

Interest in nuclear energy has increased recently due to its low-carbon footprint, energy security concerns, and technological advances. Despite the recent surge in uranium stocks, there is a lack of research on uranium sector volatility. We fill this gap by analyzing the volatility of the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) from 2010 to 2024 using high-frequency data. Our analysis reveals that HAR models effectively capture URA volatility. Market-wide implied volatility and investor attention, captured by Google search volume, are found to contain valuable information for forecasting uranium sector volatility in an in-sample context. In contrast, economic and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as global financial risk, exhibit limited relevance. Although advanced models show some improvement in out-of-sample predictions, the basic HAR model remains a robust benchmark.

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