J 2021

Modeling realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate: Does implied volatility really matter?

PLÍHAL, Tomáš and Štefan LYÓCSA

Basic information

Original name

Modeling realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate: Does implied volatility really matter?

Authors

PLÍHAL, Tomáš (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution) and Štefan LYÓCSA (703 Slovakia, belonging to the institution)

Edition

Finance, Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2021, 1059-0560

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Article in a journal

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

is not subject to a state or trade secret

References:

URL

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14560/21:00118770

Organization

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta – Repository – Repository

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.001

UT WoS

000596671900028

EID Scopus

2-s2.0-85094625465

Keywords in English

High-frequency data; Implied volatility; Realized volatility; Forecasting; Options

Links

GA18-05829S, research and development project.
Changed: 13/1/2024 03:23, RNDr. Daniel Jakubík

Abstract

V originále

We model future EUR/USD exchange rate realized volatility (RV) within a class of heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models augmented by implied volatilities (IVs). The existing literature has almost unanimously employed IVs from options with one-month maturities; however, our in-sample analysis shows that using IVs from options with a shorter maturity (of one day and one week) might be more relevant when explaining the volatility of the next day and week. In general, IVs are more useful in predicting future RV than past RVs (daily, weekly and monthly averages). At the same time, RVs seem to contain only small incremental predictive power compared to IVs. The out-of-sample results strengthen our in-sample results, as they show the increased predictive power of the models with implied volatility up to 17.3% for one-day-ahead, 42.1% for one-week-ahead, and 22.8% for one-month-ahead forecasts. Additionally, the superior set of models contains only volatility model specifications with IVs. Our results hold not only for individual forecast models but also for combinations of volatility forecasts. We show that increased forecasting accuracy is stable across time and that it is achieved during periods of high market volatility. Our study also provides new evidence that implied volatility from short-lived options as a serious contender for modeling realized volatility
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