Přehled o publikaci
2016
The Gravity Modelling of the Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade in Visegrad Countries
ŠIMÁKOVÁ, JanaBasic information
Original name
The Gravity Modelling of the Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade in Visegrad Countries
Name in Czech
Gravitační modelování vztahu mezi volatilitou devizového kurzu a zahraničním obchodem ve Visegrádské skupině
Authors
ŠIMÁKOVÁ, Jana
Edition
ACTA VŠFS, Praha, Vysoká škola finanční a správní, o.p.s. 2016, 1802-792X
Other information
Language
English
Type of outcome
Article in a journal
Field of Study
Economics
Country of publisher
Czech Republic
Confidentiality degree
is not subject to a state or trade secret
Marked to be transferred to RIV
No
Organization
Vysoká škola finanční a správní, a.s. – Repository
Keywords (in Czech)
volatilita devizových kurzů, zahraniční obchod, Visegrádská skupina, sektorová analýza
Keywords in English
exchange rate volatility, foreign tade, gravity model, Visegrad Countries, sectoral analysis
Changed: 14/9/2020 15:53, RNDr. Patrik Mottl, Ph.D.
Abstract
In the original language
The paper focuses on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign trade. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate volatility on the foreign trade of Visegrad Countries on bilateral level as well as on the commodity level for different traded product groups determined by SITC classification. An empirical analysis uses territorial and commodity structuring of foreign trade data and is realized for the period 1999:Q1 – 2014:Q3. We use panel regression applied to the gravity model of foreign trade for analyzing the exchange rate volatility effects. Exchange rate volatility leads to decreasing of foreign trade turnover on the bilateral level. In the case of Slovakia, a negative effect on foreign trade was identified in all groups except chemicals, raw materials and raw materials for food purposes. For Poland was these effects detected for trade with mineral fuels, lubricants, animal fats, oils and waxes, while other products show their negative effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade. For Hungary, all statistically significant coefficients are negative and thus confirm the assumption of reduction of foreign trade turnover with increased exchange rate volatility. For the Czech Republic, the negative effect of exchange rate volatility was reflected in trade flows of food and live animals, animal and vegetable fats, machinery, transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles.