KYSELÝ, Jan, Ladislav GAÁL, Jan PICEK and Martin SCHINDLER. Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2013, vol. 4, No 3, p. 265-286. ISSN 2040-2244.
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Basic information
Original name Return periods of the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic) in the present climate and under climate change
Authors KYSELÝ, Jan (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Ladislav GAÁL (703 Slovakia), Jan PICEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution) and Martin SCHINDLER (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution).
Edition Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2013, 2040-2244.
Other information
Original language English
Type of outcome Article in a journal
Field of Study 10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences
Country of publisher United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Confidentiality degree is not subject to a state or trade secret
WWW URL
RIV identification code RIV/46747885:24510/13:#0000947
Organization Faculty of Science, Humanities and Education – Technical University of Liberec – Repository
UT WoS 323421500008
Keywords in English regional frequency analysis
Links GAP209/10/2045, research and development project.
Changed by Changed by: RNDr. Daniel Jakubík, učo 139797. Changed: 10/3/2015 13:49.
Abstract
The study deals with estimates of return periods associated with the August 2010 heavy precipitation in northern Bohemia (Czech Republic), which resulted in flooding with enormous material damage and loss of lives, in the present climate and under climate change scenarios. We focus on the recordbreaking 1-day and 2-day amounts at lower-elevation stations, exceeding 150 and 250 mm, respectively. The estimates of return periods are based on two methods of regional frequency analysis and they are compared with local (at-site) estimation. The regional methods consistently suggest that the August 2010 event was exceptional in view of past records, but the return levels decline substantially – by a factor of 2–4 – if parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution are allowed to vary in accordance with scenarios based on an ensemble of regional climate model projections for 2070–99. In spite of large uncertainty associated with future climate change scenarios, increased recurrence probability of such heavy precipitation events in the 21st century should be taken into account when designing and implementing flood risk prevention and mitigation measures.
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