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@inproceedings{16210,
author = {Němec, Daniel and Vašíček, Osvald},
address = {České Budějovice},
booktitle = {Mathematical Methods in Economics 2010},
edition = {1},
keywords = {recursive estimation; recursive forecast; natural rates; Bayesian estimation},
howpublished = {tištěná verze "print"},
language = {eng},
location = {České Budějovice},
isbn = {978-80-7394-218-2},
pages = {469-476},
publisher = {University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Economics},
title = {Estimating structural changes of the Czech economy: How convincing are the symptoms of the economic crisis?},
year = {2010}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 16210
AU - Němec, Daniel - Vašíček, Osvald
PY - 2010
TI - Estimating structural changes of the Czech economy: How convincing are the symptoms of the economic crisis?
PB - University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Economics
CY - České Budějovice
SN - 9788073942182
KW - recursive estimation
KW - recursive forecast
KW - natural rates
KW - Bayesian estimation
N2 - The goal of our contribution is to find possible changes in the Czech economy in the last fifteen years. We are concerned with the questions of stability of the relationships among the key economic variables. These relationships are expressed particularly by the dynamic Okun's law, Phillips curve, IS curve or the Taylor's rule. The cyclical development of the economy is based on the simultaneous estimation of the four (unobserved) natural rates: potential output, NAIRU, equilibrium real interest rate and equilibrium real exchange rate. Unlike the mainstream (DSGE) models we use an alternative, non general equilibrium model without any strong restrictions on the parameter and model equations. Our results (among others) show that the significant changes of parameters are identified only in the period of the last economic downturn beginning the fourth quarter 2008 and that these changes influenced only a part of the key model parameters.
ER -
NĚMEC, Daniel and Osvald VAŠÍČEK. Estimating structural changes of the Czech economy: How convincing are the symptoms of the economic crisis? In \textit{Mathematical Methods in Economics 2010}. 1st ed. České Budějovice: University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Economics, 2010, p.~469-476. ISBN~978-80-7394-218-2.
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